China's image problem in Japan

According to a just released poll conducted by Japanese Cabinet, a combined 77.8 percent Japanese said they don't consider Chinese are friendly or they don't have a positive feeling towards Chinese. The number rings alert as it's the highest ever percentage since 1978 when the poll was started. It's also a big jump from the last poll, which recorded 55.8 percent in 2009.

Japanese Cabinet has since blamed the Chinese fishing boat clash around disputed area Senkaku/Daioyu island as the reason for the deterioration in China's image among Japanese people.

I personally think the bottom of the problem is that more Japanese have felt the growing strong Chinese presence and China's muscle flexing style, more evident entering this year. Not only there was the boat clash and subsequent Youtube videos which stirred up nationalism in both countries, but also the rare earth issue. As China is increasing its reach to more areas, the clash could become more and frequent, but not less.

The real issue here is a lack of trust and transparency, and in the surface, a lack and communication among top leaders. To solve the issue, more calm diplomacy, initiative taking and less rhetoric needed.

China Stands Strong, Everyone Wondering Why Now?

Following the release of the Chinese fishing boat captain, Beijing did not back down from its strong stance, requiring twice from Tokyo to apologize and compensate, which Japan has flatly refused. Beijing's strong stance has everyone wondering, why now?

According to one analysis by Adam Segal of Council on Foreign Relations, Chinese has been showing strong stance over the disputed marine territory for a while, at least can be traced back to 2005, when itfired on Vietnamese ships. Beijing has been building on Mischief Reef, which sits in water claimed by the Philippines as part of its Exclusive Economic Zone since 1999.

The strong stance has stirred some unspoken fear from Chinese neighbors. According to Japanese media TBS report, Korean media compared to the release as a surrender from Tokyo to Chinese strong-hand diplomacy.

In my previous analysis, and echoed by the New York Times article, the U.S. seems to be getting the rare opportunity to reassert itself in Asia, especially among countries with maritime territorial dispute with China.

Special Interests Behind Sino-Japan Dispute?

There is an interesting piece by New Yorker's Evan Osnos, on his Letter from China (the inspiration for my own Letter from Ghana blog). Evan said that the current dispute between Beijing and Tokyo could be works of Chinese special interest groups.

Just how powerful are these special interest groups? According to an insider account, a billionaire could buy his classmate a vice-mayor position in China.

However, there is still questions yet answered. The clash with Japan over the fishing boat is involved with gas, energy and territorial dispute, but there should have a carrot that motivated the groups to press hard. It could be the gas reserve in the Eastern China Sea or something else.

Washington Post John Pomfret said in his piece, "the explosion of special interests shaping China’s worldview".

Japan Releases Chinese Fishing Boat Captain

Tokyo announced the release of Chinese fishing boat captain, after Chinese protests getting stronger and more retaliation measures are expected to come, besides already announced real earth export ban and Chinese tourists urged not to go to Japan.

The release will certainly a relief sign for Sino-Japan watchers who have been concerned about the further worsening relationship. The long term impact of the incident, including physiologic shadows it casts have yet to emerge.

One certain thing is a closer collaboration between Tokyo and Washington. The two leaders just held a one-hour meeting in New York on the sidelines of the UN summit. Japan PM Kan and President Obama discussed about China and expressed a desire to strengthen the ties, which have been weakened by dispute over Futenma base transfer.

On the other hand, burdened by domestic economic slowing down and upcoming mid-term election, Obama administration certainly has more in stake in dealing with China. A recent stronger stance taken by Washington, including a tough tone on Chinese currency issue, has drawn attention.

As Chinese President Hu Jintao is going to visit the U.S. next January, and President Obama will be hosting a state dinner to welcome Hu, the third one under his presidency, it's really up to Washington to balance the act.

Sino-Japan Relation Spiral Down Further

The prolonged fishing boat clash didn't work out as both sides hoped, "calm and care", it seems the China-Japan relationship is entering winter in the mid-autumn of 2010.

First Tokyo has decided to delay the release of the captain of the fishing boat by ten days, which caused a uproar from the Beijing side, who has insisted on an immediate release. More than 10,000 Chinese tourists have already canceled their planned trips to Japan, more cancellations are pouring in, according to Japanese media reports.

Around one hundred Chinese protesters demonstrated in front of the Japanese Embassy in Beijing, smaller crowded also gathered in Shanghai's Japanese Consular office. Even in NYC, Chinese immigrants and students protested.

Top level exchanges between Japanese politicians and ministers have seen further set backs. Following the abandonment of a NYC meeting between Wen Jiabao and Naoto Kan, who are attending UN General Assembly, Tokyo announced that a meeting between Chinese minister and Japanese counterparts on the side of APEC tourist ministers meeting, which is scheduled to be held in Nara, Japan has been scrapped.

The cold wind also blew to cultural exchange scene. A concert in Shanghai featuring Japanese pop group SMAP has been called off for now, the organizers cited safety concers for concert goers. Tokyo governor Shintaro Ishihara also said he wouldn't go to a meeting in Beijing in October.

The three-day mid-autumn festival holiday hopefully will calm the situation a bit, when everyone comes back to the table, a fresh start will return.

China-Japan Relationship Worsens Due To Fishing Boat Clash

The ongoing clash between Beijing and Tokyo over a fishing boat near Sengaku (Daiyutai) islands and Chinese public outcry have further strained the fragile bilateral relationship.

Although the sides have emphasized "calm and care", the ties have cooled down quickly since Sept. 13, when Chinese fishing boat was detained by Japanese Coast Guide. According to Japanese media report, tour groups numbered around 10,000 visitors from China have canceled their original plan traveling to Japan, at least for now. That's on top of a scrapped submit between Chinese President Hu Jintao and Japan PM Naoto Kan on the sidelines of UN General Assembly this month. Another planned meeting between the two countries to discuss the joint development of the gas field in the East China Sea has also been axed.

Adding more pouch to the wound, Japanese today said Chinese have shipped drilling equipments to the disputed gas field.

As the traditional Moon Festival coming, and a long weekend to start soon in China, will the time allow the both sides to sit down and come up solutions, instead of more tensions?

I certainly hope so.

LoC Japan Exhibition and Events In September and October

The following events are to be held at the Libiary of Congress in Washington D.C. to mark the 80^th anniversary of the Library’s systematic approach to building the premier research and scholarly resource about Japan in the United States, this exhibition presents a selection from the Japanese Collections which contain more than 1.17 million items.

The series include a symposium on September 21, Exhibition walk through with curators on Oct. 2 and 16. The details are as follows:

Japanese Collection
September 20, 2010, 8:30 AM - 4:30 PM
Asian Reading Room First floor Thomas Jefferson building
"The Japanese Collection at the Library of Congress: Past, Present and Future" features treasures from the collection. Contact: (202) 707-2990

Symposium

September 21, 2010, 1:30 PM - 5:00 PM
Kluge Center Meeting Room First floor Thomas Jefferson building

Exhibition walkthrough with curators
Saturday, October 2 and October 16
1:00 p.m. - 2:00 p.m.
Asian Division Reading Room (Room 150)
Thomas Jefferson Building, Library of Congress

A free public exhibition walkthrough with curators. Curators will talk about the Japanese Collections and additional information on the exhibits. No reservations are required.

Japan Related Events In Washington

The following events are organized by the U.S.-JAPAN Research as a part of "USJI Week" from September 7-10, 2010.
If you happen to be in town, feel free to stop by. Admission is free.

Cyber Security in East Asia and Policy Cooperation Between Japan and the United States

September 8, 2010, Wednesday

10:30am-12:00pm

Ambassador Room, Hilton Washington Embassy Row, 2015 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington DC, DC 20036

Dr. Motohiro Tsuchiya Associate Professor, Keio University

Mr. David Hoffman, Director of Security Policy and Global Privacy Officer, Intel Corporation

Dr. Lance J. Hoffman, Distinguished Research Professor, The George Washington University

Mr. Tomohiko Yamakawa Producer of NTT Corporation, Cyber Security Project,
Research and Development Planning Department

On the Independence Day of the United States in 2009 cyber attacks in a massive scale against major web sites broke out without warning. Soon thereafter, similar attacks began in South Korea and they continued in a wavelike fashion. Experts found that these attacks were conducted by the same group, but could not find who they were. As Japan maintains close relationships with both the United States and South Korea, these attacks made the Japanese government realize seriousness of emerging threats in cyberspace. In this session, they will discuss possible defense methods against cyber attacks, which are expected to increase in number in the near future, and necessary policy cooperation and coordination between Japan and the United States.

How the LDP was Defeated in 2009 and How the DPJ was Defeated in 2010 in Japan?

September 8, 2010, Wednesday

3:00pm-4:30pm

Ambassador Room, Hilton Washington Embassy Row, Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington DC, DC 20036

Dr. Aiji Tanaka USJI Operating Adviser, Professor, Waseda University

Dr. Michael A. Bailey Professor, Georgetown University

Mr. Fred Hiatt Editorial Page Editor, The Washington Post

In this short presentation, Prof. Aiji Tanaka is going to point out the following characteristics of Japanese voters in recent national elections. First, some macro data of the voters in Japan suggest that those unorganized voters who turned out to vote for the LDP led by Koizumi in 2005 were approximately the same unorganized voters who made the DPJ led by Hatoyama in 2009. Second, their public opinion data (Yomiuri Newspaper and Waseda University collaborated a series of nation-wide public opinion surveys from October 2008 through June 2010) show how disappointed those Japanese voters who supported the DPJ in 2009 were at the DPJ in 2010. Third, the same public opinion data also suggest how those unorganized voters felt toward the LDP, and suggest little possibility that the LDP may come back to the government.

Commitment to Development Index: Its meaningfulness and Policy Implications

September 9, 2010, Thursday

10:30am-12:00pm

Ambassador Room, Hilton Washington Embassy Row, 2015 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington DC, DC 20036

Dr. Yoshiaki Abe USJI Operating Adviser, Professor, Waseda University

Mr. David Roodman Senior Fellow, Center for Global Development

Mr. Hiroto Arakawa Senior Special Advisor, Japan International Cooperation Agency; JICA

The annually prepared index from 2003, the Commitment to Development Index, rates 22 rich countries on how their foreign aid, trade and other policies help or hurt development efforts of the developing countries. Japan US have been rated low. The key points are related to how to quantify various policies and how to weigh different policy execution.

The Partisanship and Bipartisanship in Contemporary US Politics

September 9, 2010, Thursday

3:00pm-5:00pm

Ambassador Room, Hilton Washington Embassy Row, 2015 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington DC, DC 20036

Dr. Fumiaki Kubo USJI Operating Adviser, Professor, the University of Tokyo

Dr. Kazuyuki Sugawara Associate Professor, Kushiro Public University of Economics

Presentation "Did President Obama's Appointments Overcome Ideological Differences?"

Mr. Takeshi Umekawa Fox International Fellow, Yale University

Presentation "Presidential Signing Statement and Conservative lawyers"

Mr. Rentaro Iida Ph.D. Candidate, Georgetown University

Presentation "Interest Groups, Polarization, and the Structure of Abortion Debate"

Ms. Ayako Hiramatsu Ph.D. Student, the Johns Hopkins University

Presentation "Ideology Caucuses in the House of Representatives"

Dr. Shoko Kiyohara Lecturer, Meiji University

Dr. Clyde Wilcox Professor, Georgetown University

The ideological polarization is one of the most noteworthy features of contemporary American politics. At the same time, we should not ignore some of the real and earnest efforts to regain or pursue bipartisanship even in this hyper-partisan atmosphere, especially on such issues as foreign policy, fiscal policy, social security, or health care reform. In this perspective, four research designs and preliminary results will be presented on various topics ranging from Presidency, Congressional Caucus, to interest groups.

This seminar will be held as a midterm presentation of USJI research project.

Japan Goes Beyond Yasukuni? Kan Forgos a Visit

At the August 15th ceremony marking the 65th anniversary of the end of World War II, Japan has stepped out of its war shadow, at least for now.

The Democratic Party of Japan government led by Prime Minister Naoto Kan has decided not to visit Yasukuni shrine, his whole Ministers also got the message, no one from his 17-member cabinet went to Yasukuni. The first time in 25 years.

"We feel deep regret, and we offer our sincere feelings of condolence to those who suffered and their families," PM Kan said at a commemoration ceremony attended by the Japanese Emperor Akihito.

The conservative Liberal Democratic Party has strong words for Kan. Shintaro Ishihara, the outspoken Tokyo Governor criticized Kan following other countries' order. Former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe thought it violated the freedom of religion.

The road for Japan to move beyond Yasukuni is certainly not easy. Just on the same day, a right-wing member in his 20s weaved a Japanese knife on the streets near Japanese Diet and severely wounded a police security force.

Kan's decision has also won support from neighboring Korea. Korean president Lee Min Pak praised the move as one step forward. The usual critical Chinese government has not put out a formal response.

Japan Replaces Diplomats With Chinese Speaking Counselors

Japan seems to be increasingly turning its attention to Beijing. According to Tokyo Broadcasting System, Tokyo has recently single-handily changed four of its five counselors in Beijing, replacing them with diplomats that have obtained training at Chinese language school. (TBS)


Have you heard of China's Ghost towns? They have nothing to do with Gold rush, but have everything to do with real estate bubble. (TBS)


Heatwave spreads to Shanghai, Japan's sport idol Ping Pong player Ai Fujihara collapsed at Expo. (TBS)

China Tigthens Camera Security in Urumqi

According to Japanese TV network TBS, there are around 40,000 cameras set up around Urumqi, the capital city of Xinjiang region. The cameras were around all major streets, businesses and shops. Right before one-year anniversary of riots where 197 people killed, the measure is to monitor any threats to the city. Last month, the authority also added 5,000 policemen to guide the Urumqi streets.


Japanese wrestlers or gamblers? The biggest news in Japan now is the exposure of several Sumo wrestlers were involved in gambling on....., while nothing than the national pastime, baseball.


Xi'an, a tourist hot spot in China where I used to live, locals counted on hard currencies from the tens of thousands of Japanese tourists coming to see the starting point of the famed Silk Road. Now, the wind is completely revised. Japanese hotels and department stores are hoping to kiss ass of Chinese tourists, especially a new relaxed visa ruling taking place July 1 has make Chinese easier than ever to travel to the eastern neighboring land.


Japanese PM Kan Naoto extended invitation to China to the G8, which had caused a damage control from FM Okada, who said, such invitation is only ad hoc, not on a permanent basis. As a only Asian country in the G-8, Japan certainly feels the position threated by China and South Korea in a larger G-20 meetings.


India and Japan is in nuclear talks.

Hillary Clinton In Asia

Chinese online portal Sina has a piece highlighting that U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton schedule on three-nation Asian trip. The story, titled Clinton's Asian Trip is Trip To China, emphasized complaints from Japanese saying Clinton only spent 3 hours in Tokyo, while spending 5 days in China and 1 day in Korea.

Another piece on Sina highlighted the size of 200 delegates in the Clinton entourage, including 15-18 cabinet level officials. In one word, Beijing feels Clinton has given good face to China.

As the second round US-China Strategy session opens tomorrow, more eyes will be on how much of the good will transferred to concessions from Beijing on North Korea, Iran sanctions, RMB revaluation and trade barrier issues.

Japan Pavilion In Shanghai Expo

"Hi-Tech, Environment and Future", the three well-defined themes are well-received in Shanghai.

All the blogs I found online so far has all the good words on the Japanese Pavilion in Shanghai. It is also one of the most recommended must-see highlights, among the Chinese Pavilion, German (the Metal Ball with voice activation) and Saudi Arabia (being rich is certainly not a bad thing)

Inside Japan hall, you will find a Robot playing violin with traditional Chinese music, one-person concept car, life in 2020, etc.

The best review of all, "I waited three hours to get into the Japan Pavilion, but the wait is well worthy it". And, "it is not what you have seen, but what have moved you".

Outgunned by China, Japan Plays Catch-up

Two-day conference will be held in Tanzania between Japan and 50 African countries. However, Tokyo doesn't have diplomatic presence in a dozen of these countries.

Out of the 53 nations in the continent, Japan only 31 embassies, while its much larger and emerging China has 46 or 48 embassies, said a spokesman at the Ministry of Foreign Affair in Tokyo.

Japan's Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada will step out on his first African trip since taking office, while his Chinese counterpart Yang Jiechi has been all over Africa, the most recent is a four nation tour in January. While Yang's trips were mostly brief ones in each stop, Okada will be only going to South Africa before heading to Dar es Salaam.

Japan has sinced vowed to catch up, the nation announced to double aid to $1.8 billion in Africa by 2012. The amount now stands at $1.65 billion.

The aid money is important, however, the personnel on the ground and business activities will also decide who gets the influence in Africa.

Okinawa Miyaku, Japanese executed in China

Tokyo court orders Japan Ministry of Foreign Affairs(MOFA) to disclose a secrete deal signed thirty years between Japan and the U.S. regarding transfer of Okinawa base. According to Sheila Smith of Council on Foreign Relations, the first ruling on the miyaku is significant as "a milestone, however, in that it is the first time that citizens have used Japan’s Information Disclosure Act effectively against the government on an issue related to the US military."

The ruling also certified that there was such a behind-the-closed-doors agreement between the two countries.

According to TBS News, three Japanese drug smugglers were executed in Dalian of Northeastern China.

How one-eyed man spotted the gathering storm?

Michael Lewis's book, The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine and get Liar's Poker, the Michael Burry, The unlikely investing genius made hundreds of millions from the big finance fall caused by subprime loans.Not everyone has the talent to spot the big short, however, the message is universal: it takes rationality, not emtion to spot the historical opportunity.

We humans are too emotional. When we look at something, we already have a bias. We tend to think the way we want the things to go, most smart people have a contingency plan, and prepare for a worst-case scenario, but how convinced they are that it will actually going to happen? The irrationality makes us hope instead of fear, and fear instead of hope.

When we decide, headcount and number crouch should always be put front and center, but as a recent neurologist revealed during a fascinating presentation, most of us prefer to choose the easiest option that requires least thinking. When the things get too complicated or it simply takes more time to comprehend, we simply stop thinking and let the things decide for us.

One real life example he cited is picking an option on donor card. When one is required to decide whether agrees to donor organ or not, most people seemed to be confused and did nothing. However, when the format changes to doing nothing if one agrees to donor, but cross the option only if choose not to do so, most people did nothing and thus increase donor pool significantly.

The example illustrates that we are prone to make an irrational decision, and only when the process is coupled with logical reasoning and quantitative counting, can our decision making become more balanced.

However, the rational reasoning is not without its own potholes, numbers can be cheery picked to fit a particular agenda and charts can be created to illustrate a quite opposite picture. The solution is a thorough duel diligence.

Before putting faith to any theories, one has to question the credibility and long term performance. Also, how much time we are willing to spend on the research also makes or breaks a sound reasoning.

Next time, when coming to make a decision, whatever small it is, blending with some number crouching and critical thinking will help us to clear the mind and see the path further down the road.

1. Ask for numbers, where is the data, benchmark, measurement? How long does the data trace back? How credible is the data?
2. Get to the bottom of the issue. How does it work? (When the issue gets complicated, few are willing to spend alone time to dig out dirt). Who are the key players?
3. What’s in there for ME? Can I leverage my edge?
4. Realize it is ultimately cold and lonely all the way on the top. Can I endure? Are there any support systems? How long can I stay there? How convinced for a long term endurance of loneness and even be ridiculed?
5. Depersonalize the issues. It is not about the relationship, but about the results. How better to achieve it without too much emotion involved.
6. Spot a manipulation early on. And look at things with a critical eye and open mind. Determine to get to the bottoms of an issue.

You need the logic to convince and the emotion to persuade. When the jury is in and the vote is counted, only result will be the final.