China Stands Strong, Everyone Wondering Why Now?

Following the release of the Chinese fishing boat captain, Beijing did not back down from its strong stance, requiring twice from Tokyo to apologize and compensate, which Japan has flatly refused. Beijing's strong stance has everyone wondering, why now?

According to one analysis by Adam Segal of Council on Foreign Relations, Chinese has been showing strong stance over the disputed marine territory for a while, at least can be traced back to 2005, when itfired on Vietnamese ships. Beijing has been building on Mischief Reef, which sits in water claimed by the Philippines as part of its Exclusive Economic Zone since 1999.

The strong stance has stirred some unspoken fear from Chinese neighbors. According to Japanese media TBS report, Korean media compared to the release as a surrender from Tokyo to Chinese strong-hand diplomacy.

In my previous analysis, and echoed by the New York Times article, the U.S. seems to be getting the rare opportunity to reassert itself in Asia, especially among countries with maritime territorial dispute with China.

Special Interests Behind Sino-Japan Dispute?

There is an interesting piece by New Yorker's Evan Osnos, on his Letter from China (the inspiration for my own Letter from Ghana blog). Evan said that the current dispute between Beijing and Tokyo could be works of Chinese special interest groups.

Just how powerful are these special interest groups? According to an insider account, a billionaire could buy his classmate a vice-mayor position in China.

However, there is still questions yet answered. The clash with Japan over the fishing boat is involved with gas, energy and territorial dispute, but there should have a carrot that motivated the groups to press hard. It could be the gas reserve in the Eastern China Sea or something else.

Washington Post John Pomfret said in his piece, "the explosion of special interests shaping China’s worldview".

Japan Releases Chinese Fishing Boat Captain

Tokyo announced the release of Chinese fishing boat captain, after Chinese protests getting stronger and more retaliation measures are expected to come, besides already announced real earth export ban and Chinese tourists urged not to go to Japan.

The release will certainly a relief sign for Sino-Japan watchers who have been concerned about the further worsening relationship. The long term impact of the incident, including physiologic shadows it casts have yet to emerge.

One certain thing is a closer collaboration between Tokyo and Washington. The two leaders just held a one-hour meeting in New York on the sidelines of the UN summit. Japan PM Kan and President Obama discussed about China and expressed a desire to strengthen the ties, which have been weakened by dispute over Futenma base transfer.

On the other hand, burdened by domestic economic slowing down and upcoming mid-term election, Obama administration certainly has more in stake in dealing with China. A recent stronger stance taken by Washington, including a tough tone on Chinese currency issue, has drawn attention.

As Chinese President Hu Jintao is going to visit the U.S. next January, and President Obama will be hosting a state dinner to welcome Hu, the third one under his presidency, it's really up to Washington to balance the act.

Sino-Japan Relation Spiral Down Further

The prolonged fishing boat clash didn't work out as both sides hoped, "calm and care", it seems the China-Japan relationship is entering winter in the mid-autumn of 2010.

First Tokyo has decided to delay the release of the captain of the fishing boat by ten days, which caused a uproar from the Beijing side, who has insisted on an immediate release. More than 10,000 Chinese tourists have already canceled their planned trips to Japan, more cancellations are pouring in, according to Japanese media reports.

Around one hundred Chinese protesters demonstrated in front of the Japanese Embassy in Beijing, smaller crowded also gathered in Shanghai's Japanese Consular office. Even in NYC, Chinese immigrants and students protested.

Top level exchanges between Japanese politicians and ministers have seen further set backs. Following the abandonment of a NYC meeting between Wen Jiabao and Naoto Kan, who are attending UN General Assembly, Tokyo announced that a meeting between Chinese minister and Japanese counterparts on the side of APEC tourist ministers meeting, which is scheduled to be held in Nara, Japan has been scrapped.

The cold wind also blew to cultural exchange scene. A concert in Shanghai featuring Japanese pop group SMAP has been called off for now, the organizers cited safety concers for concert goers. Tokyo governor Shintaro Ishihara also said he wouldn't go to a meeting in Beijing in October.

The three-day mid-autumn festival holiday hopefully will calm the situation a bit, when everyone comes back to the table, a fresh start will return.

China-Japan Relationship Worsens Due To Fishing Boat Clash

The ongoing clash between Beijing and Tokyo over a fishing boat near Sengaku (Daiyutai) islands and Chinese public outcry have further strained the fragile bilateral relationship.

Although the sides have emphasized "calm and care", the ties have cooled down quickly since Sept. 13, when Chinese fishing boat was detained by Japanese Coast Guide. According to Japanese media report, tour groups numbered around 10,000 visitors from China have canceled their original plan traveling to Japan, at least for now. That's on top of a scrapped submit between Chinese President Hu Jintao and Japan PM Naoto Kan on the sidelines of UN General Assembly this month. Another planned meeting between the two countries to discuss the joint development of the gas field in the East China Sea has also been axed.

Adding more pouch to the wound, Japanese today said Chinese have shipped drilling equipments to the disputed gas field.

As the traditional Moon Festival coming, and a long weekend to start soon in China, will the time allow the both sides to sit down and come up solutions, instead of more tensions?

I certainly hope so.

LoC Japan Exhibition and Events In September and October

The following events are to be held at the Libiary of Congress in Washington D.C. to mark the 80^th anniversary of the Library’s systematic approach to building the premier research and scholarly resource about Japan in the United States, this exhibition presents a selection from the Japanese Collections which contain more than 1.17 million items.

The series include a symposium on September 21, Exhibition walk through with curators on Oct. 2 and 16. The details are as follows:

Japanese Collection
September 20, 2010, 8:30 AM - 4:30 PM
Asian Reading Room First floor Thomas Jefferson building
"The Japanese Collection at the Library of Congress: Past, Present and Future" features treasures from the collection. Contact: (202) 707-2990

Symposium

September 21, 2010, 1:30 PM - 5:00 PM
Kluge Center Meeting Room First floor Thomas Jefferson building

Exhibition walkthrough with curators
Saturday, October 2 and October 16
1:00 p.m. - 2:00 p.m.
Asian Division Reading Room (Room 150)
Thomas Jefferson Building, Library of Congress

A free public exhibition walkthrough with curators. Curators will talk about the Japanese Collections and additional information on the exhibits. No reservations are required.

Japan Related Events In Washington

The following events are organized by the U.S.-JAPAN Research as a part of "USJI Week" from September 7-10, 2010.
If you happen to be in town, feel free to stop by. Admission is free.

Cyber Security in East Asia and Policy Cooperation Between Japan and the United States

September 8, 2010, Wednesday

10:30am-12:00pm

Ambassador Room, Hilton Washington Embassy Row, 2015 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington DC, DC 20036

Dr. Motohiro Tsuchiya Associate Professor, Keio University

Mr. David Hoffman, Director of Security Policy and Global Privacy Officer, Intel Corporation

Dr. Lance J. Hoffman, Distinguished Research Professor, The George Washington University

Mr. Tomohiko Yamakawa Producer of NTT Corporation, Cyber Security Project,
Research and Development Planning Department

On the Independence Day of the United States in 2009 cyber attacks in a massive scale against major web sites broke out without warning. Soon thereafter, similar attacks began in South Korea and they continued in a wavelike fashion. Experts found that these attacks were conducted by the same group, but could not find who they were. As Japan maintains close relationships with both the United States and South Korea, these attacks made the Japanese government realize seriousness of emerging threats in cyberspace. In this session, they will discuss possible defense methods against cyber attacks, which are expected to increase in number in the near future, and necessary policy cooperation and coordination between Japan and the United States.

How the LDP was Defeated in 2009 and How the DPJ was Defeated in 2010 in Japan?

September 8, 2010, Wednesday

3:00pm-4:30pm

Ambassador Room, Hilton Washington Embassy Row, Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington DC, DC 20036

Dr. Aiji Tanaka USJI Operating Adviser, Professor, Waseda University

Dr. Michael A. Bailey Professor, Georgetown University

Mr. Fred Hiatt Editorial Page Editor, The Washington Post

In this short presentation, Prof. Aiji Tanaka is going to point out the following characteristics of Japanese voters in recent national elections. First, some macro data of the voters in Japan suggest that those unorganized voters who turned out to vote for the LDP led by Koizumi in 2005 were approximately the same unorganized voters who made the DPJ led by Hatoyama in 2009. Second, their public opinion data (Yomiuri Newspaper and Waseda University collaborated a series of nation-wide public opinion surveys from October 2008 through June 2010) show how disappointed those Japanese voters who supported the DPJ in 2009 were at the DPJ in 2010. Third, the same public opinion data also suggest how those unorganized voters felt toward the LDP, and suggest little possibility that the LDP may come back to the government.

Commitment to Development Index: Its meaningfulness and Policy Implications

September 9, 2010, Thursday

10:30am-12:00pm

Ambassador Room, Hilton Washington Embassy Row, 2015 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington DC, DC 20036

Dr. Yoshiaki Abe USJI Operating Adviser, Professor, Waseda University

Mr. David Roodman Senior Fellow, Center for Global Development

Mr. Hiroto Arakawa Senior Special Advisor, Japan International Cooperation Agency; JICA

The annually prepared index from 2003, the Commitment to Development Index, rates 22 rich countries on how their foreign aid, trade and other policies help or hurt development efforts of the developing countries. Japan US have been rated low. The key points are related to how to quantify various policies and how to weigh different policy execution.

The Partisanship and Bipartisanship in Contemporary US Politics

September 9, 2010, Thursday

3:00pm-5:00pm

Ambassador Room, Hilton Washington Embassy Row, 2015 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington DC, DC 20036

Dr. Fumiaki Kubo USJI Operating Adviser, Professor, the University of Tokyo

Dr. Kazuyuki Sugawara Associate Professor, Kushiro Public University of Economics

Presentation "Did President Obama's Appointments Overcome Ideological Differences?"

Mr. Takeshi Umekawa Fox International Fellow, Yale University

Presentation "Presidential Signing Statement and Conservative lawyers"

Mr. Rentaro Iida Ph.D. Candidate, Georgetown University

Presentation "Interest Groups, Polarization, and the Structure of Abortion Debate"

Ms. Ayako Hiramatsu Ph.D. Student, the Johns Hopkins University

Presentation "Ideology Caucuses in the House of Representatives"

Dr. Shoko Kiyohara Lecturer, Meiji University

Dr. Clyde Wilcox Professor, Georgetown University

The ideological polarization is one of the most noteworthy features of contemporary American politics. At the same time, we should not ignore some of the real and earnest efforts to regain or pursue bipartisanship even in this hyper-partisan atmosphere, especially on such issues as foreign policy, fiscal policy, social security, or health care reform. In this perspective, four research designs and preliminary results will be presented on various topics ranging from Presidency, Congressional Caucus, to interest groups.

This seminar will be held as a midterm presentation of USJI research project.