How one-eyed man spotted the gathering storm?

Michael Lewis's book, The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine and get Liar's Poker, the Michael Burry, The unlikely investing genius made hundreds of millions from the big finance fall caused by subprime loans.Not everyone has the talent to spot the big short, however, the message is universal: it takes rationality, not emtion to spot the historical opportunity.

We humans are too emotional. When we look at something, we already have a bias. We tend to think the way we want the things to go, most smart people have a contingency plan, and prepare for a worst-case scenario, but how convinced they are that it will actually going to happen? The irrationality makes us hope instead of fear, and fear instead of hope.

When we decide, headcount and number crouch should always be put front and center, but as a recent neurologist revealed during a fascinating presentation, most of us prefer to choose the easiest option that requires least thinking. When the things get too complicated or it simply takes more time to comprehend, we simply stop thinking and let the things decide for us.

One real life example he cited is picking an option on donor card. When one is required to decide whether agrees to donor organ or not, most people seemed to be confused and did nothing. However, when the format changes to doing nothing if one agrees to donor, but cross the option only if choose not to do so, most people did nothing and thus increase donor pool significantly.

The example illustrates that we are prone to make an irrational decision, and only when the process is coupled with logical reasoning and quantitative counting, can our decision making become more balanced.

However, the rational reasoning is not without its own potholes, numbers can be cheery picked to fit a particular agenda and charts can be created to illustrate a quite opposite picture. The solution is a thorough duel diligence.

Before putting faith to any theories, one has to question the credibility and long term performance. Also, how much time we are willing to spend on the research also makes or breaks a sound reasoning.

Next time, when coming to make a decision, whatever small it is, blending with some number crouching and critical thinking will help us to clear the mind and see the path further down the road.

1. Ask for numbers, where is the data, benchmark, measurement? How long does the data trace back? How credible is the data?
2. Get to the bottom of the issue. How does it work? (When the issue gets complicated, few are willing to spend alone time to dig out dirt). Who are the key players?
3. What’s in there for ME? Can I leverage my edge?
4. Realize it is ultimately cold and lonely all the way on the top. Can I endure? Are there any support systems? How long can I stay there? How convinced for a long term endurance of loneness and even be ridiculed?
5. Depersonalize the issues. It is not about the relationship, but about the results. How better to achieve it without too much emotion involved.
6. Spot a manipulation early on. And look at things with a critical eye and open mind. Determine to get to the bottoms of an issue.

You need the logic to convince and the emotion to persuade. When the jury is in and the vote is counted, only result will be the final.

Life’s True Compass

After reading the late U.S. Senator Ted Kennedy’s Memoir “True Compass”, a fascinating book about the life in the America's most prominent political family, death of his brother U.S. President John F. Kennedy and another brother Senator Bobby Kennedy and many joys and tragedies in between, I had the following thoughts to share with you:

1. Life is a working progress, the journey doesn’t stop and dream never dies

2. Laugh often and make people around you laugh with you

3. Find and seek like-minded people to build meaningful things together

4. When get lost, keep asking WHY? It will usually get you back to why you started and the original vision to keep you going on and strong

5. No one can achieve big things in life along, get a support system. And be humble, self is really nothing without others

6. Everyone and everything has a use. Think and implement ways to maximum the use

7. What matters is not what have desired, but what have done, even what has been said

8. Get away from the heavy side of the life and look after at the positive side. Looking for the fun side, no matter how grave a situation looks like

9. Have perseverance, the stick-to-it-ness. One day makes little difference, but keeping on doing what you have done will.

10. The best place is the place where people share goals, work hand and laugh often and loud, I call it “dream factory”

11. Everyone has ego. The right way is to recognize it and check it by the door. Put it to the back burner and try going on in life without it.

12. Not afraid to look bad, learn from what you don’t already know and be brutally honest with self.

Warm Cross-Strait Relations Cool Japan-Taiwan tie?

A new article from the think tank East West Center, authored by Yasuhiro Matsuda examined how the warming Mainland China-Taiwan relations will impact Taiwan's tie with Japan.

The concerns are "including those of Taiwan being swallowed up into China and Ma's latent anti-Japanese sentiment. Meanwhile, suspicions have been lingering in some circles in China and Taiwan that improved cross-strait relations are not welcomed by Japan."

There have many whispers about the near-term cross-strait relationship, especially considering the uncertainties surrendering the new sixth generation leadership in China, to be debuted in 2012, and Taiwan's own recent election where President Ma's party didn't do well. In Japan, the new Hatoyama administration has been boggled down with Futenma basis deadlock with the U.S. and downward of approval ratings.

Six Keys To Effectively Work With Chinese

The other day, I was told that a Chinese businesswoman had a quarrel with her Ghanaian business partner. The Ghanaian complained that the Chinese was disrespectful and yelling at people and the Chinese said she was simply trying to explain the situation.

As a cross-culture trainer, I think that, “Conflict is not always a personal clash, but a clash in value and perception.” When working with people from different cultural backgrounds, preservation is everything.

To overcome cultural bias and stereotypes, I created a simple model to work with clients, the model of UNIQUE. It stands for:

Understand, before being understood.

No Presumption. Even with good intention

Inquire. ASK

Quote back and confirm

Use humor

Empathy

To elaborate the model, I developed the following six keys to guide you through the maze of working with Chinese:

1. Understand what the Chinese culture values:

· Trust

· Face and Harmony

· Long term relationships -- “guanxi”

· Reciprocity: mutually beneficial

· Loyalty. An old Chinese saying goes like this, “Dogs don’t leave poor owners; You don’t complain about your mom’s looks”

· Achievement: Fame and Profit. There are five criteria to judge the success of a Chinese man: Money, House, Wife, Son, and Car.

2. Identify characters of Chinese people:

· Pragmatism, “whatever works”

· Materialism, Money is God

· Relationship oriented, network is the way to success. Who you know is more important than what you know

· Distinguish between an insider and an outsider. Foreigners are called “lao wai” (“senior outsider”)

· Collectivist culture

· Hard working: save hard for rainy days

3. Pay attention to Chinese cultural aspects:

· Hierarchy, highly structured and everyone aware of own position

· Respect and obey the old and superiors

· Privacy is still an imported luxury, and people are inquisitive

· Education is the way to get better future

· Too flexible, “rules are set to break”

4. Communicate with Chinese:

Chinese communication style: High Context Culture

· Indirect way of communication. From A to C then B

· Informal environment is preferred

· Non-verbal communication, use a lot of body language

· Volume: speak loud, you can’t tell whether it is a talk or a quarrel

· Don’t listen well, presume

· Tolerance for ambiguity

· Avoid saying NO. Thousand ways of saying No, without actually saying it

· No is also a Yes………with a little work

5. Respect Face Factor

• Face (mianzi, pride) needs to be saved by all means. No face, no pride. Everyone needs to look good

• Harmony is maintained to keep a long term relationship

• Due to a rapid economic growth, Chinese are particularly proud of themselves

• Saving face is universally applicable. Chinese are who they are, not where they are.

6. Seek Common Ground

• Make an effort and show your understanding for the culture and the values. Appreciate what Chinese culture has to offer. Biggest complaint – “Foreigners don’t understand China”

• Seek things of common interests, not you vs. us

• Be prepare to read between the lines, understand nuance and body language

• Be humble and persistent

• Listen well. Ask a lot of good questions, then listen.

Finally, Use humor:

Chinese have a natural inclination to be afraid of black people. Why?

They think you are taller and know better Kung Fu

You are welcome to quote freely from this article once you give proper attribution. (A link to letterfromghana.blogspot.com and author: Brian Yang would be appreciated.) You are also welcome to republish this article in full once you give the proper attribution .

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